Below we propose to ways to approximate the market size for OxidOS’s solutions (embedded OS, DevTools, Isolation Layer for POSIX OS).

Estimation approach v1 (SAM): 75.000.000 cars/ year x 40 ECUs (average) running an OS x 2$ per unit average OS cost = 6B. That would almost double with development tools, isolation layer, and extras - leading to a 10 - 12B estimation.

(Note 1: There are different pricing models. For reference, a typical autostart-based OS (e.g.: Vector) will cost around 200k + up to 200k in support of integrations for an ECU deployed in 100 - 300k units. While QNX does not have any public pricing info, we know that they typically charge around 5 to 10$ per ECU/ car sold).

(Note 2: 75M is chosen so as to represent only passenger cars in the following years, which tend to have a higher ECU count compared with commercial vehicles. Global production in 2023 was 93M units worldwide, out of which 67M light passage vehicles).

Estimation approach v2 (SAM): McKinsey estimates by 2030

• 7B in operating system and middleware
• 18B in infotainment, connectivity, security, connected services
• 42B ADAS and HAD (that we think includes OS and middleware) Out of this, what we target (embedded operating system, isolation layer for powerful compute units) - would likely cover around 7B x 50% + 18B x 25% + 42B x 10% = 12.2B.

Estimations used by start-ups in the automotive software industry:

• Applied Intuition (250M in series E & 300M in secondaries, both in 2024) puts the market for software and electronics - at 462B by 2030, quoting McKinsey
• Aurora Labs (97M in funding until now - last one at series C) - estimates that just the software dev cost (without the licenses and development tools) / car will be > $1500 per car by 2030

Start-up trajectory perspective - similar start-ups:

• https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/applied-intuition (900M total funding)
• https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/apex-ai (72M total funding)
• https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/aurora-labs (97M total funding)
• https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/sonatus (110M total funding)

https://www.aptiv.com/en/newsroom/article/aptiv-completes-the-acquisition-of-wind-river-from-tpg (not really new start-up level, but the largest acquisition of an Operating System-focused company - at 3.5B).