The estimated market we target is 12B in Automotive (larger, more players), and 5B in Aerospace and 3B in Defense (smaller, fewer players). Industrial and Robotics, as long-term targets, would add 5B to our target.
Below we propose to ways to approximate the market size for OxidOS’s solutions for the Automotive Sector (embedded OS, DevTools, Isolation Layer for POSIX OS).
Estimation approach v1 (SAM): 75.000.000 cars/ year x 40 ECUs (average) running an OS x 2$ per unit average OS cost = 6B. That would almost double with development tools, isolation layer, and extras - leading to a 10 - 12B estimation.
(Note 1: There are different pricing models. For reference, a typical autostart-based OS (e.g.: Vector) will cost around 200k + up to 200k in support of integrations for an ECU deployed in 100 - 300k units. While QNX does not have any public pricing info, we know that they typically charge around 5 to 10$ per ECU/ car sold).
(Note 2: 75M is chosen so as to represent only passenger cars in the following years, which tend to have a higher ECU count compared with commercial vehicles. Global production in 2023 was 93M units worldwide, out of which 67M light passage vehicles).
Estimation approach v2 (SAM): McKinsey estimates by 2030
Estimations used by start-ups in the automotive software industry:
For Aerospace - the SAM (Serviceable Available Market) for OxidOS-addressable - with a focus on embedded OS, RTOS, safety-critical middleware, and toolchains for aerospace platforms priced >$10K/unit (essentially all large aircraft, spacecraft, and UAVs in this sector). Not all avionics software is third-party addressable, but a subset (real-time operating systems, base software, and development tools) represents the market we believe that OxidOS can target. We estimate Aerospace SAM ≈ $4–5 B. This aligns with the fact that aerospace firms often procure commercial RTOS and development tools for safety-critical systems, a significant portion of the total software spend.
For Defense - the SAM for OxidOS-addressable with a focus on embedded OS, runtime software, and toolchains in safety- or mission-critical defense applications (again focusing on platforms >$10K/unit, which is virtually all major defense systems). Many defense projects use real-time operating systems and middleware from third parties (or could adopt them), but some use bespoke solutions. We estimate Defense SAM ≈ $2.5–3 B. This reflects the subset of defense software where an independent vendor’s OS or tools could be used (for instance, RTOS in military avionics, UAVs, or vehicle control systems). It’s somewhat smaller than aerospace’s SAM due to the niche, classified, or bespoke nature of some defense software (and fewer commercial off-the-shelf opportunities).
Note: for Industrial / Robotics – the SAM addressable by OxidOS focuses on embedded RTOS, safety-certified middleware, and development toolchains used in SIL-rated applications across industrial automation, robotics, and transportation control. This includes systems like PLCs, robotic arms, safety-rated drives, and railway signaling platforms where software determinism and safety compliance (e.g. IEC 61508) are mandatory. We exclude general-purpose or non-safety workloads (e.g. Linux in non-critical robotics). We estimate Industrial/Robotics SAM ≈ $5–6 B. This reflects the substantial global demand for functional safety–compliant embedded platforms, with software (OS + tools) accounting for a significant share of total system safety spend. A meaningful portion of this market is addressable by third-party vendors, especially in newer industrial automation programs, collaborative robotics, and critical control systems, where certified RTOS platforms and toolchains are increasingly adopted instead of in-house safety stacks.
Established corporations: BlackBerry (QNX) (MPU RTOS), Elektrobit (MPU RTOS), ETAS (Bosch) (MPU RTOS, DevTools), Green Hills (MPU RTOS), HighTec EDV (DevTools), Siemens (Mentor) (MPU RTOS, DevTools), Synopsys (DevTools), Vector Informatik (MPU RTOS, DevTools), Wind River (MPU RTOS, DevTools).
Startups examples: Applied Intuition (DevTools), Apex.AI (HPC RTOS), AutoCore.ai (RTOS), Aurora Labs (DevTools), Sonatus (HPC RTOS), Visure Solutions (DevTools)