Our financial model for after the seed round is: Financial Model OxidOS.

How to read this financial model

This note explains how the model is built and the logic behind the main assumptions. The model covers six years and is in EUR. Month 1 is “1st month after certification / full round close”. The first year is modeled month by month, and everything after that is by quarter.

Summary

We sell to automotive OEMs, and the way these companies buy is very predictable: they start small, with one project and a PoC, and if it works, they expand. So instead of forecasting a top-down market share, we built the model bottom-up. First we model one typical OEM client in detail, from the first PoC to a mature account. Then we place 13 such clients on a timeline, each starting at a different moment, and add them up. Costs (team, operations, certification) come on top of that, and together they give the P&L and the cash position.

How the sheets fit together

If you want to follow the logic in the file, this is the order we'd suggest:

1. (extra – model for clients) is the heart of the model: what one typical client looks like quarter by quarter.
2. DevTools assumptions holds our DevTools pricing and how many teams we expect to adopt the tools. It feeds the client model.
3. (aux) is just a helper grid. For each quarter, it tracks how many projects a client has in PoC and how many are already licensed.
4. Revenue brakedown takes the typical client, places 13 of them on the timeline and adds everything up.
5. Salaries brakedown shows the team we plan to build, role by role, with all taxes included.
6. Simplified P&L is where it all comes together: revenue, costs, EBIT and cash. If you only look at one sheet, look at this one (the yearly summary is at the bottom).

What a typical client looks like

Every client follows the same path.

It starts with a PoC. The OEM picks one internal project and works with us to integrate OxidOS Edge, using our basic DevTools. This is paid engineering work (Engineering Services).

After about 12 months, the project goes to production licensing. From that point we earn a license fee of €2,500 per project per month.

Then the account grows, in two ways. First, the client uses OxidOS on more projects (more ECUs, more car platforms). Second, it uses more of our tooling, especially the Automated Certification tool as it matures from ASIL-B to ASIL-D.

As the account matures, the mix of revenue shifts. Engineering fees go down: from €25k per month per PoC in the first year, to €10k in years 2–3, then to about €2.5k, which by then is really support. Recurring revenue (licenses and DevTools) becomes the bulk of the account.

DevTools pricing and the 3× adoption multiplier